Daniel and Ed are both right, though Ed will think I'm off my meds tonight, the trough is a full latitude long wave trough and slightly negative tilt which means the flow on the back side is straight out of Canada almost straight south and deep into the Caribbean.

Shear analysis has indicated the GOM has been closed for business the entire week. The pattern over the US was not as amplified as it is now. Two things had to happen before this scenario would be in play; one, the jet maxima that carved a cutoff low over E TX and moved into the GOM; the second another piece of energy that carved out a deeper low over Southern Ontario. The ULL in the GOM would phase (merge) with the primary low and set the stage for a cold few days over the east. One other feature that is not on the US charts is an omega block near 38N and 16W which will gum things up for awhile which has led to two schools of thought with Tomas future track this evening.

In the month of November and given Tomas' location is when you see some really goofy things that defy the norm and conventional reasoning. A trough like this forces you to think outside the box because we're not dealing with strictly Tropical entities and thought processes.

There's no probably, you're in fact...you both are correct.