danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Jun 15 2011 04:00 PM
Florida Rain?

It's a big IF at this point. The GFS Long Range is forecasting a large area of rain to develop in the GOM in the next 7 to 10 days.
The main difference is in which model run you choose to view. GFS changes every 6 hours, the changes can be subtle or large. Earlier, yesterday's model, indicated a low pressure system developing in the 7- 10 day period. Moving from the BOC along the whole TX Coast toward Louisiana. The low then appeared to have upper level support at the 300mb level with a weak High overhead.

Low meandered for 36-48 hours over coastal Louisiana before moving NE.

Today's models, so far, have moved the developing Low more to the east. Favoring the Florida Panhandle and Upper Peninsula with rainfall.

More to come in the days ahead. The development is in question due to the amount of time involved. But stranger things have happened.
And nearly everyone in the Deep South needs rain.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/



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