In their weekly update issued by the Climate Prediction Center of the "Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions" of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), issued Oct. 3rd., indicate that the MJO "Signal" is currently on the move, propagating across the Pacific towards the Western Caribbean.

Transiting from the Western Pacific, which saw a spate of typhoon activity recently, the current MJO "Signal" (pulse) is towards the Eastern Pacific (there was even a promising looking "Invest" south of Hawaii within this past week), which now seems evidenced by current Hurricane 'Irwin' and Tropical Storm 'Jova', both of which are poised to recurve into Western Mexico.

Of more importance for the vast majority of those reading this is the last part of the last paragraph:

"The forecast MJO phase favors continued above-average precipitation for the Northwest quarter of the U.S. including parts of California during much of the period and enhances the threat for tropical cyclogenesis for the western Caribbean Sea during Week-2."

Which seems to correlate well with recent discussions in the Forecast Lounge. Trouble on the horizon ??

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