Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri Nov 01 2013 01:29 AM
Re: Are Seasonal Forecasts Worthwhile

Note that 'storm preparation' and 'resource planning' are two quite different activities. EM folks never use the seasonal predictions when they are involved with an actual storm preparation. Resource planning mostly involves monetary probabilities for the movement of personnel, supplies and equipment into affected areas after the storm, or staging of equipment and evacuation of special needs folks before the storm. A busy outlook suggests the potential for greater seasonal expenditures than an outlook for a quieter season - its a cost-allocation exercise that has no impact on the actual EM response associated with a particular storm. However, if the seasonal forecast turns out to be way off base, then so is the resource planning exercise and that leads to questions about the value of the forecast. Its certainly true that the 2013 seasonal forecasts didn't have any meaningful value.

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