LI Phil
Tue May 18 2004 10:08 PM
Re: Evac

Spike, again, it depends upon the particular storm. If you live 20 miles inland and a Cat 2 is threatening, then by all means break out the (for you UN) alcoholic beverages and enjoy the partay. But if a Cat 4, which Floyd was at the time, is within a couple of hundred miles of you...pack the kids, the dog and the flood insurance policy (for coastal residents) and get the #$%^% out of there. Again, that's the problem with disaster planning....damned if you do and damned if you don't. If you don't call for an evacuation and the storm hits....well, then you're f---ed. If you do call for an evac and the storm hangs a sharp right, the next time the area is threatened, people won't take the warnings seriously. Again, there are so many factors involved, i.e. strength of storm, angle, time it would take to evacuate the potentially affected area, all come into play.

Just to give you a personal example...I live on Long Island (duh). However, as an Island (albeit a fairly large one), many many different factors would come into play. Depending upon the potential strength of storm at landfall, evacuation warnings could be required more than 48 (and possibly 72) hours before projected landfall. Now, Long Island has barrier Islands, which would completely flood in even a weak Cat 2, so all those residents would need to evacuate, by bridge or ferry, well in advance. In a stronger storm, those inland up to several miles would also need to evacuate...but the only ways out are some ferries (from the north shore to CT), or NYC bridges and tunnels. Because TS force winds are stronger at elevation than at the surface, this would mean bridges would close to traffic many hours before the storm even approaches. And with almost 4 million residents, 2 million or more who would be at risk, this would be an impossible task....

This is my greatest fear. If we ever had a repeat of some of the more famous hurricanes of the past (1938, 1893, 18??), we'd have death and destruction like never before. Subways in Manhattan would flood, lower manhattan would be under water up to 24th street (a LONNNNNGGGG way).

Anyway, enough of my babbling. Just suffice it to say that when the "big one" comes a-knockin', get the heck outta Dodge if they tell you to.

I'm not really into "disaster" movies, as they always exaggerate the truth, but I am actually looking forward to the release of "The Day After Tomorrow" which opens, at least in my area, next week. All about potential weather disasters. Probably way over the top (previews show the Statue of Liberty being demolished by a 200' wave--yeah right), but it could be a fun little weather related flick. It'll probably 5u<K, but who doesn't love a little bit o'weather?

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