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HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
819 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDE LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL EXCEED
5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND
ALONG THE SHORELINES OF THE BAYS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY.
WATER LEVELS WILL RISE RAPIDLY BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SURGE MOVES IN WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT
ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15
MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME
OF THESE VALUES.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...5 TO 8 FEET

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...5 TO 8 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND
INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND......12 TO 16 FEET

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY
DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF
BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

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