i follow you.. nobody, definitely at this site, ever predicts well below average activity, or that say, something crazy like half a dozen hurricanes in a given season will somehow all miss the coast. i happens often enough though.
its mostly psychological i think. hurricane fans are like rednecks at a monster truck rally. the big mean powerful things run around the rink smashing neat rows of cars, and all stand in awe. it's interesting to watch.. you WANT to see old cars get crushed to scrap. but in the real world, the figurative monster truck can get out of the rink.
this fascination translates over into our forecasts, by osmosis.. nobody wants a boring five storm season. that only happens every.. what, 25 years. it's like betting against your favorite baseball team, saying theyll finish 20 games under .500. you want your team to get the pennant... but that means somebody ELSE has to lose, which on the other side of the analogy is anyone in the hurricane's path.
well, i think.. best to be neutral about them. no amount of wishing is going to make them hit or miss. theyre just part of the grand scheme of things.. just a big variable thats very hard to predict.
i can see all this.. but still wonder how hurricanes manage to incite such zeal and fervor in some people. myself included. though.. i still try to take a neutral, observant attitude. not predicting 16 storms every season, and not forgetting that sometimes there will only be five. overprediction is the side cfhc types tend to err on.
HF 1924z31july