My best guess is that the 6-9 month ridge over the gulf stays intact and the furthest north this system may head is Corpus Christi.. most likely Brownsville south.
However if it were to move more north east of Houston, as an aside could we finally get a more prolonged colder winter(a pause in this whole global warming excitement) if a pattern of early season troughs were strong enough to break the ridge down???
Anyhow - should be interesting to see if Ernesto can overcome the inhibiting factors that have not allowed a hurricane much less a strong hurricane to develope this year...