Sun Jun 10 2012 12:33 PM
Re: Hurricane Climatology

Out of curiosity I checked the Farmer's Almanac for the next two months. Here's the result.

June 2012
8th-11th. Gusty thunderstorms, especially lower South, then fair.
12th-15th. Thunderstorms, then clearing.
16th-19th. Tranquil.
20th-23rd. Squally Gulf Coast. Big storms rest of the Southeast. Tropical storm threat for Florida.
24th-27th. Hazy, hot, humid.
28th-30th. Scattered showers, turning fair.

July 2012
1st-3rd. Fair.
4th-7th. Heavy thunderstorms from Gulf north, east into the Carolinas.
8th-11th. Scattered showers, thunderstorms.
12th-15th. Drying out , heating up.
16th-19th. Sultry conditions, then scattered thunderstorms.
20th-23rd. Mostly fair.
24th-27th. Scattered showers, then fair weather.
28th-31st. Humid, sticky weather, accompanied by hit-or-miss showers, thunderstorms.

August 2012
1st-3rd. Widely scattered showers, thunderstorms.
4th-7th. Fair, then scattered thunderstorms across parts of Southeast.

Hurricane Forecast from Farmer's Almanac.
This year, the Farmers’ Almanac is predicting a less active season. Our 2012 edition mentions only one potential hurricane threat in August, along the Gulf Coast from the 16th through the 19th. Moving into September, we see another possible threat for the Gulf Coast from the 8th through the 11th and a second, possibly related, system moving along the length of the East Coast, from the south into New England a few days later.

Now to see if the forecast is accurate.

August 2,2012 Update
August 2012
1st-3rd. Widely scattered showers, thunderstorms.
4th-7th. Fair, then scattered thunderstorms across parts of Southeast.
8th-11th. Hot and humid.
12th-15th. Ongoing threat of thunderstorms, some severe.
16th-19th. Wet system from Gulf of Mexico moves inland and brings copious rains to eastern Mississippi River Valley.
20th-23rd. Showery, then fair.
24th-27th. Hefty thunderstorm activity gives a glancing blow to the upper Tennessee River. Generally fair skies elsewhere.
28th-31st. Thunderstorms, some heavy, especially for Gulf Coast.

September 2012
1st-3rd. Scattered showers, a few thunderstorms during the Labor Day weekend.
4th-7th. Hot and oppressively humid.
8th-11th. Hurricane threat along Gulf Coast. Heavy thunderstorms.
12th-15th. Hurricane threat Southeast Coast.
16th-19th. A tropical disturbance dawdles off the coast. Showery, then clearing.
20th-23rd. Windy and rainy.
24th-27th. Squalls sweep across the region from west to east.
28th-30th. Another spell of unsettled weather.

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