weatherguy08
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun May 25 2008 08:45 PM
Re: GFS Long Range "Rainacane"

Three WFO's along the Gulf Coast have mentioned this system in their Area Forecast Discussions:

Lake Charles: "LATER NEXT WEEK, BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP A COLD CORE LARGE SCALE AND STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE YUCATAN. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ON THE OUTER
PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. INCLUDED MINIMAL
PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES INTO AN OUTER
CONVERGENCE BAND. THIS IS STILL VERY PRELIMINARY SINCE THE GFS
DEEPENS THE LOW TO 998HPA AT THE SURFACE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN A
WEEK DOWN THE ROAD. I'M FAVORING THE EURO WHICH HAS A MUCH WEAKER
1006HPA LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH
MODELS MORPH THE SYSTEM INTO A HYBRED [sic] WARM CORE LOW NEXT WEEKEND."

Houston: THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE DIFFERING IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE TROPICS
BY DAY SEVEN. THE GFS HAS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE PRESENT
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF COAST STATES. THE ECMWF HAD A STRONGER RIDGE
IN PLACE FROM MEXICO ALL THE WAY EAST INTO FLORIDA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH BOTH MODELS THEN GOING IN DIFFERENT
DIRECTIONS WITH THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IT IS BEST TO
SAY THAT THE TROPICS BEAR WATCHING."

Corpus Christi: GFS THEN TRIES TO BREAK UPPER RIDGE UP
INTO WESTERN AND EASTERN AREAS...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER REGIME OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE ECMWF BUILDS A STRONGER RIDGE WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF. STILL FEEL WESTERN PORTION OF UPPER
RIDGE...IF GFS IS RIGHT...WILL INFLUENCE SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER AND
BESIDES FORECAST MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED (PWATS GENERALLY BELOW
1.5 INCHES)...SO DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WHAT REALLY
HAPPENS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT MOST LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DECIDES TO GO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...IF THIS WAVE DEVELOPS. SOMETHING TO WATCH."



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