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Three WFO's along the Gulf Coast have mentioned this system in their Area Forecast Discussions: Lake Charles: "LATER NEXT WEEK, BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A COLD CORE LARGE SCALE AND STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ON THE OUTER PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. INCLUDED MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES INTO AN OUTER CONVERGENCE BAND. THIS IS STILL VERY PRELIMINARY SINCE THE GFS DEEPENS THE LOW TO 998HPA AT THE SURFACE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN A WEEK DOWN THE ROAD. I'M FAVORING THE EURO WHICH HAS A MUCH WEAKER 1006HPA LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH MODELS MORPH THE SYSTEM INTO A HYBRED [sic] WARM CORE LOW NEXT WEEKEND." Houston: THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE DIFFERING IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE TROPICS BY DAY SEVEN. THE GFS HAS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE PRESENT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF COAST STATES. THE ECMWF HAD A STRONGER RIDGE IN PLACE FROM MEXICO ALL THE WAY EAST INTO FLORIDA. THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH BOTH MODELS THEN GOING IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS WITH THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IT IS BEST TO SAY THAT THE TROPICS BEAR WATCHING." Corpus Christi: GFS THEN TRIES TO BREAK UPPER RIDGE UP INTO WESTERN AND EASTERN AREAS...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE ECMWF BUILDS A STRONGER RIDGE WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF. STILL FEEL WESTERN PORTION OF UPPER RIDGE...IF GFS IS RIGHT...WILL INFLUENCE SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER AND BESIDES FORECAST MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED (PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 1.5 INCHES)...SO DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WHAT REALLY HAPPENS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOST LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DECIDES TO GO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IF THIS WAVE DEVELOPS. SOMETHING TO WATCH." |