Re: 94L

Models are finally starting to initialize this disturbance correctly. By my own best forecasting ability, I'm still on a 75% chance that it becomes a TS within the next 6 days (probably sooner, if it does) and a 40% probability of it becoming a hurricane within 6 days (and probably sooner, if it does), and a 10% chance of it becoming a major hurricane within 6 days. Feeling vindicated so far tonight... in fact, GFDL just cranked out this whopper...certainly not the sort of thing we would like to see verified.

TD 3 should have a good chance of earning a name, provided it stays just to the right enough (and offshore!) to avoid ingesting too much of that dry air from its left, while enjoying just enough interaction with the gulf stream. In fact, it appears that it could simply ride the stream long enough.. and pick up a pace just fast enough.. to have reasonably low net-effective shear while ingesting plenty of gulf stream energy juice. While that's not even in the same galaxy as the current official forecast, and judging by how slowly its been getting its act together, looks like a bit of a stretch right now, I wouldn't write that possibility off. We've seen a few gulf streamers really pop this way from time to time.

3 AM EDT Addendum:

Sustained tropical storm-force winds are likely now occurring within 94L:

Invest 94L Location - 15N 74W (Per NRL at this time)

Station 42058 - Central Caribbean 15.09 N 75.06 W
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed:
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
0601 33.4 kts ESE ( 104 deg true )