Re: 94L's GFDL run

The HWRF run shows something similar, but on a very different track:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.c...;hour=Animation

I'm thinking GFDL and HWRF are both picking up on high SSTs in the gulf. Much higher than in the Caribbean, and for a fast moving storm, the depth of the warm water has less impact (depth is shown in the Z26 map, and affects the HHC map).

See SST26 and HHC maps here: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html

The biggest question is track. NOGAPS takes it into the Yucatan, preventing any chance of significant development. GFS brings it into the gulf, on about the same track as the HWRF. GFDL is the eastern outlier of these major models.

If you want to see all the major model tracks: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ (currently 94L is frame 3, but it could change)

Speaking of model runs, anyone know anything about the GHM model? I haven't noticed it before, and it's listed over at NCEP: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hur/storm_1/00/index_hurpage.shtml

Edit: PS - I like Avila's comment on Bertha in the latest NHC forecast discussion

- "CONSQUENTLY...BERTHA HAS TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...FAMOUS LAST WORDS. "