On Friday we are driving from Beaumont Texas to Vortex Springs for a scuba class. The naysayers have said, "Hey, it will be cancelled because of all that activity--like 92L!". By my calculations, the earliest it could, if it did, threaten Pensacola would be mid next week and we will be safely back in Texas with our certifications in hand. It would be nice to have a way to estimate when a storm "might" be somewhere. I based my estimate on the speed and current location. I agree that the models are somewhat useless this far out.