(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 13 2008 09:15 AM
Re: to recap 92L

It is quite curious to see how the GFS continues to handle 92L consistantly. In that, the system as a whole simply continues to move WNW'ward without any significant development. In striking contrast, the GFDL has been equally consistant in wanting to develop 92L into a hurricane and just as consistantly brings 92L along just north of Hispanola, S. Bahamas, and then through the Florida Straights. Well, as of this posting ( and data per the 6Z respective model runs ), the GFDL continues to bring a minimal hurricane towards S. Florida, ( though has backed off yesterdays intensity forecast of over 100kt's ) and the GFS has not budged and continues to stubborningly insist that nothing more than an open wave will ever develop. In contrast, the seemingly more conservative European Model, has been surprisingly consistant in wanting to develop 92L, and carry it WNW'ward on a track curiously similar to that of the GFDL. In years past, I would notice how little more than a one isobar low, perhaps with only a hint of "yellow" on the Euro map, would often come to pass as a developed storm, as forecasted. This is not to say that the Euro has not come up with its own share of "ghost" storms, but the frequency of this seemed far less common to occur. As of the 8/13/08 - 0Z run, the European model now depicts a similar long range track, though now quite impressively developing it as a much deeper cyclone, and for the first time, carries this as a strong system through the E. Gulf, than northward towards the Florida panhandle.

Forecasting is certainly not as simple as "model-casting". Some models such as the Canadian, I simply do not pay much attention to. Others such as GFS, GFDL, EURO, or UK seem to carry a little more weight. Then one need to take into consideration overall conditions, and even overall tendancies of that given year. I would be surprised to see much development of 92L over the next 36 hours. It would not be unlikely for it to disipate altogether, but should it maintains its integrety and continue to show some level of circulation with some maintained bursting of convection, than will be quite interesting to see what the future holds in about 48 hours from now. This is when upper air seemingly improves enough for conditions to become more favorable for possible development.

Next question beyond "if" 92L develops, is where. Low level flow would want to take the system perhaps more westward, while mid level would tend to develop a system slightly farther to the north. Lets see what things look like early Friday...... :?:

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