weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 14 2008 09:00 AM
Re: 92L transitioning

With regards to the models, I would agree that current tendancies would lean now - or are favoring recurvature. If in fact 92L is deepening, than I would have to be even more inclined that motion would be distinctly tied to mid level flow rather than surface or shallow flow. Longer term guidance seems to want to possibly hook a system back NW'ward possibly towards the Carolina's or Mid Atlantic seaboard. "If" such building of a ridge were to occur, than wherever any such TC might ( if still close to the U.S. coastline ), such a possible west ot NW motion could ensue. Here too, is where model casting is really tricky business because even temporary stalling due to a system deepening, or a less anticipated COL, would affect forward speed of motion, thus also impacting future motion.

To my eyes, there truly does exist "such as reason" why 92L may never impact the U.S. mainland. It's current appearant westward motion ( 270-280 degrees ) would seem to have 92L on a mountain climbing excursion. Any disruptive interaction with Puerto Rico or even moreso with Hispanola, could entirely disrupt or destroy the systems circulation. This looks to me to be perhaps more likely than quick development to be followed by recurvature.



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