(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 14 2008 10:27 PM
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way....


Really good comments tonight here. Not much I can add.

There is one main area of convection, bright red on IR tonight and its on radar so if they can't find a center soon I don't know when they will. Can a mid level hover just above the surface? I remember a storm several years back that had 3 flights into a wave that looked like it was a strong Tropical Storm before they could find the elusive west wind.

The models have been very good on this so far and so that is good. Down the line it's a very hard forecast for the NHC. IF it does follow the coast of Florida the slightest variation of degrees right can make the difference between landfall at Pt. Everglades, WPB or just clipping the Cape. That's down the road and right now we don't have a designated storm.

NHC makes the call.

LC- I just posted the following on Ed Dunhams recent forum--

'Ed-- could you help us understand how a system with this type of satellite presentation is not a depression despite the calm winds at the surface. I have been tracking storms for a long time and do not remember a senario like this.'

Touches on what you are mentioning about MLC. I just don't get it!

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