Sat Aug 16 2008 05:07 PM
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way....

Here's the headache inducing part of the storm, intensity is a crap shoot...

From the 5PM 8/16 Discussion:


When fay is over water... it appears that atmospheric conditions will be favorable for strengthening through 72 hours. Thus... the intensity will be controlled by land interaction and the resulting impacts on the storm structure.

All guidance continues to forecast strengthening... and the intensity forecast follows suit in bet agreement with the ships model. However... this is a low confidence intensity forecast. Fay could strengthen rapidly if it becomes well organized over water, such as while passing south of Cuba,, or over the straits of Florida, on the other hand... it might not strengthen much at all if land interaction prevents organization.

So the current intensity forecast is a compromise, hopefully the forecast is too strong. This is the part that probably causes the hurricane center the most grief with warning issuance.

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