(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 16 2008 05:49 PM
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way....

The only thing that worries me is the outflow. From the get go this storm has an excellent outflow thus if it every gets it act together it could blow up. Now with that said its looking very ragged right now, even the NHC said the winds are down. The interaction with the land is starting to do the damage to its structure we all excepted over Haiti.

My original thought is still holding up pretty good: Fay moved further south, thus the track went west and the time line for arrival has slowed. While the east coast isn't out of the woods yet I don't think we'll see much from this system even after it hops Cuba as it only has small window to pickup steam. Some where between the Panhandle and points north of Ft. Myers would be my guess-timate at this time at Cat 1 level only.

The Water Vapor loops (my favorite tell-all for storms) shows a spin ahead that will draw the storm further west, so I think the turn to the north will be later (and slightly sharper) then NHC shows, however the end result will be the same. Hard to judge that front stalled to the north, it seems to just be sliding east now, not sure when its going to break down and/or begin to draw Fay north.

One thing is for sure: it going to be very windy in Key West come Monday. That should give us a good feel for the true natural of this particular storm.

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