| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 02:57 PM |
|
Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
|
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everything is wishcasting at this point.
a lot of land interaction ahead - Cuba and SW FL.
the acute angle of approach to SW FL throws a massive monkey wrench in the works.
picking landfall points really only confuses the issue for many "watchers" of this website....
and possibly puts others in harms way if they don't pay attention.
The Cone, not the Line.
So in other words we need to watch the cone, not the lines? so that means any one inside of the cone can get impact, and the line is just..the line? I'm confused..
Yes.
The line is nothing more than a center point of a system maybe a hundred miles wide.
and that center point as well as the track is a PREDICTION
It is not "for sure"
Educated guesstimate
So then how are people completely 100% sure Fay is going to strike Fort Myers directly? I'm still confused..As previously stated I've never been through a hurricane in my life, got all my supplies and stuff done, but just unsure as to how NHC and other models like BAMS can predict where she will land, and where to watch it. How sure can we be that Fay is going to be a Cat 1 when she hits Ft Myers? I remember Andrew and Katrina on TV, from New Hampshire, and they said then that the hurricanes were unpredictable and could do anything, so how can I be sure that this hurricane will strike me directly? What is the percentage? Why do the graphs keep shifting?
Another thing, you mean to tell me that anyone in the cone will be affected by this storm? So a hurricane is like a massive storm affecting more than one state at a time? This is also confusing to me, because you said the line is the center of the storm, so in essence, the line is the eye? Can someone help? I'm really starting to be confused..