(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 17 2008 10:31 PM
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge


Who's feeding the data into the computers, a sicko?

Garbage in / Garbage out They can't get a fix on the center thus the models keep jumping around.

Instead of looking at the storm itself I keep looking at the conditions in its general path. IE: what's going in NW FL, where is the High over the Atlantic, what about the low-level spin in the Gulf. Storms always take the path of least resistance, see where ever the clear "road" is thats were she'll go. Of course if you can't tell where she is currently that makes this whole process rather silly and pointless.

The models have moved west but I still see a general flow to the east. I just don't see how this storm can get that far up the state before being pushed aside by westerly flow shown in the water vapor loop: However the problem I see down the road is that since the storm has slowed down (again) it might just miss the big dip in the upper level over TN and sneak in behind it. The low pressure ahead Fay in the Gulf is dropping further south so its effects are being minimized with each passing hour, thus maybe she'll slide even further west, I wonder if this is what the models are grabbing onto.

Then again these effects are mostly pronounced on more vertically stacked and developed storms. The weaker Fay stays the harder it is to judge just what will effect her the most.

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