Storm Cooper
(User)
Tue Aug 19 2008 04:57 PM
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge

An interesting portion of the AFD Tallahassee...

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
THROWN US YET ANOTHER CURVE BALL AS THEIR LATEST SOLUTIONS TAKE
FAY INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY THIS WEEKEND (AS OPPOSED TO A TRACK
ACROSS SOUTH GA AND SOUTH AL). THIS COULD ALLOW FOR RE-
STRENGTHENING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF FAY SURVIVES HER TREKS
ACROSS THE STATE. THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY TAKES FAY INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN MS WHILE THE GFS TAKES FAY SLOWLY INLAND AROUND PANAMA
CITY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH EITHER SCENARIO WE EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN...RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. OF
COURSE THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
WE STILL HAVE NOT BEEN ADVERTISING MUCH OF A WIND THREAT...BUT IF
THESE LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WE MAY START DOING THIS.



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