(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 20 2008 10:36 PM
Another perspective

For what it's worth, this just in from a local weather service in my area...............

"Tropical Storm Fay is about 35 miles north of Cape Canaveral this evening. The storm has drifted slowly northward during the day and should soon begin a more northwesterly motion tonight. Fay will likely move inland tomorrow morning near the Daytona Beach/St. Augustine area.

Steering currents are virtually non-existent around Fay at the moment, but as high pressure strengthens to the north over the Mid-Atlantic states, Fay will be forced westward on Thursday and Friday and will move back across the Florida Peninsula. Fay has a good chance of reaching coastal areas of the extreme northeast Gulf of Mexico by late Friday and then should continue roughly parallel to the coastline of Northwest Florida on Saturday and Sunday. Fay will likely turn northward by late Sunday or Monday after possibly moving as far west as the Pensacola area or southwest Alabama.

As Fay moves westward during the next few days, it is very likely that the storm will remain too close to the Northwest Florida coast for significant strengthening to occur. Thus, Fay is expected to remain weak (tropical depression) as it moves westward this weekend. Also, Fay could easily remain slightly inland from the Northwest Florida coast, which would mean the storm would continually weaken over the weekend. There is only a 10% chance that Fay will move far enough offshore over the open waters of the northeast Gulf for the storm to strengthen into a strong tropical storm or hurricane this weekend.

Fay has already been a devastating flood producer with some locations in east-central Florida receiving over 25 inches of rain. Additional heavy rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches are likely over northern Florida during the next couple of days as Fay moves slowly westward. Additional local amounts may reach 15 inches. Much smaller rainfall amounts are likely in southern Georgia.

A tornado threat will continue over northeast Florida and southeastern Georgia tonight and Thursday.

Tides of 1-3 feet are likely occurring along the northeast Florida coast to the north of Fay's center, and these tides will continue into Friday morning. Significant beach erosion is also probably occurring."

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