94L has really taken on a nice tight appearant turning in the last few satellite frames. Rather hard to see unless one look at a Rainbow, JSL, or perhaps IR ( without color enchancement ) due to the bursting convection taking place as of this post. At the seemingly low latitude of approx. 10N-12N, the 18Z model consensus seems to very much favor a "close call" with Jamaica in 96-120 hr's. No doubt a great many Club Med'er's, vacationing Hedonists, and island folk might want to keep a watch to the southeast for this one. Interestingly, from a Climotology Model link ( http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al942008_climo.png ), it is even more interesting to see that of 7 Climotology applicable tracks, 5 continue on thereafter, to visit the Sunshine State ( that is, before Fay arrived ).

That said, I took a gander at the available 96hr. - 160 hr.'s -18Z GFS ( 500mb ), and from looking at the forecasted steering, one could not help but think tthat the closest that "Baby Gustav" could come to the U.S., would be by maybe sneaking up on S. California, via crossing Central America. At the moment, sure looks like a nice big 'ol ridge over the southeastern U.S..

It is curious how once again, the typically reliable EURO has been consistantly ( over several runs ) trying to bring a significant TC into or threatening the Greater Antilles. Conversly, the GFDL has been very unimpressed with 94L, until the 18Z run. Now it has also jumped on the bandwagon, and will wait to see some 0Z model consistancy here - as well as perhaps the WRF model.

I believe that 94L might just really "ramp up" fairly quickly. I say this because of the fact that it is late August, upper air seems conducive, and the fact that current satellite presentation is fairly impressive. The fact that a big majority consensus of models happen to bring 94L right up to a Tropical Storm in 6-12 hours, is fairly compelling too.

95L does not impress me, by appearance of satellite. I am concerned however given the fact that Fay formed at a slightly high latitude, and although the limited convection with 95L is presently around 18N, it would not surprise me at all for altogether new convection were to start blowing up by tomm. a.m., along the wave axis - but forther south perhaps closer to 15N. Seems like a strong surge of moisture with a lot of vorticity coming with this wave.