weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 23 2008 02:12 PM
94L vs. 95L race

95L may indeed form quicker, at least with regards to area of "open real estate". Its only problem may be forward movement and outrunning itself. 94L could be having issues with convergence, given proximity to S. America. Latest Quickscat shows what might appear as an alongated fully closed low, but perhaps over Trinidad. Models that do want to develop it, or forecast motion, insist on a WNW to NW motion, but for now would assume maintaining a overall westward march with the low level flow ( at least until it gets its act together ).

As for the Canadian model..............., I saw how the 12Z run really ramps this baby up and heads it to just south of Central Cuba. When I see the majority of other models not pick up on development, especially the most relable ones, I simply choose to not even look at the CMC model. I have developed the opinion of this model that, if a lone person on a sailboat in the middle of the Atlantic were to spray an aresol can......, that the CMC model would likley pick up on it and evenually develop THAT into a hurricane as well. I just do not know what the over all value of this model is, with regards to tropical cyclogenisis ( unless perhaps usefull for future motion, once developed....). Would certainly be interested in any MET's insights with regards to this model's current beneficial use.



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