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The NHC forcecast track has TD 7 going NW while the storm seems pretty doggedly heading more due west. It looks to me like the last 2 GFDL model runs may not have initialized TD7. The 082418Z model run (the major hurricane in the Yucatan Channel run) seems to be the only recent run that depicted what seems to be working out in reality. This could be a scary storm. Another example of a 2008 system challenging the NHC experts? |