Models will shift back and forth a bit even though they seem consistent now.

It's better to watch the movement of the storm and compare it to the short term part of the models
to see how they are playing out.

One always breaks from the pact.

Some of these models refuse to develop it just 24 hours ago when it was not yet classified. To me that's a red light I worry on.

Watch 3 day, keep your eye on 5 day range and keep watching the storm itself!