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The 2PM models have tweaked slight and now have the storm closer to the southern Cuban coastline. Overall it looks like the high is digging further SE which might open the window to turn N sooner then forecast. However for now the models are all still in agreement up until Friday AM, then things start to spread out. As time moves on the real question is if the flow over FL now will help reinforce the high and keep Gus down south as it moves west. The NHC seems to think so... and they are the experts so I tend to agree with them. Further down the road even the models can't figure out what will be happening out in the Gulf, thus everyone in the from west FL to east TX needs to pay attention. Should have much better picture of things come early Friday AM. |