craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 27 2008 10:18 AM
Re: gustav looking strange on loops

The center was exposed earlier this morning and is now filling in. Clearly looks to me like Gustav has started his westward trek although forward speed will certainly add a variable on how the enviornment will evolve over time in front of him. There seems to be enough uncertainty with the models and NWS analysis that I would say anywhere from the lower keys to along the entire gulf coast needs to watch this. Somewhat less of a threat to SE Florida due to the consensus that it will make it to the SE GOM by day 4 or 5 coupled with the fact that the 3 day cone usually verifies. After that any kind of solution that would turn it hard to the right is doubtful because I don't think the models would miss a long wave pattern that would cause such a shift, subtle changes yes but not a deep trough.
Link to start of westward movement:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html