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The center was exposed earlier this morning and is now filling in. Clearly looks to me like Gustav has started his westward trek although forward speed will certainly add a variable on how the enviornment will evolve over time in front of him. There seems to be enough uncertainty with the models and NWS analysis that I would say anywhere from the lower keys to along the entire gulf coast needs to watch this. Somewhat less of a threat to SE Florida due to the consensus that it will make it to the SE GOM by day 4 or 5 coupled with the fact that the 3 day cone usually verifies. After that any kind of solution that would turn it hard to the right is doubtful because I don't think the models would miss a long wave pattern that would cause such a shift, subtle changes yes but not a deep trough. Link to start of westward movement: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html |