I am interested in that trough which is now pushing into NW Colorado/ Nebraska. It looks pretty vigorous, but it may not penetrate to a low enough latitude. There still seems to be weak high pressure over eastern Texas extending eastward over coastal LA.
If that persists or strengthens that should favor a westward track. It looks like all that will set up tomorrow more clearly. So that puts me in agreement with those who say Gus will have to show his hand today and tomorrow at least before the GOM dynamic is clear enough to make a reasonably accurate assessment. I have no reason to know if the high now influencing the projected track will or won't hold. It looks as if it may have shifted SW since yesterday a bit, which may also push Gus further south and west than first thought. Gus is moving mostly west very slowly. The influence of the peninsula is hindering re-structuring, but signs of the process beginning are there, with convection south and west toward Jamaica developing. I think today will be a long day in the life of Gus, with very little new happenning.