The latest IR imagery shows a good deal of convection starting to build near where the NHC has the center located. By morning I would expect to see the strength on the upside instead of weakening. Also to note, most of the model tracks that have been recently updated, including the NHC model track, have shifted slightly to the west of where they previously were.

In the forecast discussion from the NHC they bring up the point that there is a greater expectation of some shear once Gus hits the GOM and there is also a greater chance that an upper level ridge will be entering the western gulf because of the delay in track and intensification that Gus has taken over the past day. Personally I think that the warm waters that Gus is entering will still allow it to reach Cat 3 strength even if only for a while before shear takes it back down to a Cat 2.