I don't have a lot of faith in the GFS lately. That said, it looks like Gustav is going to run the length of Jamaica and won't intensify (maybe weaken) while there. Once he moves west of Jamaica, there is little to impede intensification. I still have my doubts of the 4 and 5 day positions and strength forecasts. I would think that we will be seeing a cat 3 storm in the Gulf come Sunday. Where it goes from there is still highly uncertain. There is still a persistent SW high level flow over the GOM, but I can make out a somewhat counter flow at the mid-levels below that on the WV loops. The patterns are very complex and anything beyond late Saturday/early Sunday is suspect. It's still very much a wait and see scenario.