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At this point, there are going to be minor shifts to the right or left of the forecast track in the short term as Gustav strengthens. I've had many professors/mentors tell me that these hurricane centers aren't simply static features you move on a playing board - they're constantly interacting with their environment, strengthening, weakening, and "re-forming" in response to convection, steering currents, and topography. There is great certainty on Gustav impacting W. Cuba, but exactly how it will impact the northern Gulf coast remains to be seen. If I were an Emergency Manager anywhere along the Gulf coast, I'd be prepared for lots of rain if indeed Gustav slows its forward motion just as it approaches landfall (Mon-Wed). Florida already knows what these "soakers" can do. |