JMII
(Weather Master)
Fri Aug 29 2008 09:58 PM
Re: gustav looking to the right of the latest runs

Yep Gus is getting his act together. The most recent model runs have him pushing a bit more west. The UKMET has been doing a good job with Gus's and that shows the most SW landfall of all the models. I'm really worried with all the focus on the Big Easy (for obvious reasons) that those living to the W and E don't realize how wide the cone is - AL thru TX are still within the realm of possibility for landfall!

Looking at the various loops and other data there seems to be a weakness over TX and 'canes tend to take the path of least resistance. Before I thought the NHC was trending too far west, now it seems like the opposite is occurring due to how slowly Gus moved over the last two days. Gus missed his chance to ride the flow E into FL... and now all the upper level steering winds are swing around to the west as the ridge slides up and out. I've been using the CCIMS products for analysis as the data goes back 4 days.

As for Hanna I think she is drunk tropical systems rarely move SOUTH unless its a loop, a stall or a relocation of the center... so I will not even comment on her future track at this point in time.



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