JMII
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 30 2008 10:32 AM
Re: Gustav Lounge

The model data for Gus shows a tight cluster that is right on the NHC forecast track (straight as an arrow!), there is almost no variation in the models until right before landfall. Then all the models show a turn to the west at the end of their runs, so the real question involves Gus's speed and timing, it very well could make that turn BEFORE landfall and wind up in the middle of TX! I'm just worried with the focus on LA that people elsewhere are not preparing for this storm. Keep in mind the front moving thru the central US could out run Gus and draw him north putting those on the east side of the cone more at risk. However I'm sticking with more the west solution for now.

Currently Gus is NE of his forecast position, is this a wobble or a trend? Judging the overall picture I'd say its a wobble, the storm is not symmetrical right now - most of weather is to the SW, so once that wraps around we should find Gus's eye back on track by the time it crosses Cuba.

The low in the front of Hanna is all but gone now, her outflow is looking better, but her center is displaced so she's got some work to do... but that's a topic for another thread.



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