They have the Forecast Discussions that they publish along with each public advisory and they detail what their reasonings were for whatever changes they did or didn't make. For a while with Gus they were going with the middle of the road out of the models since they were going both east and west, then they went with their own data some and stayed a little east of the consensus and now the only question out of the models that isn't in consensus is when the turn west will happen...I think the High pressure center that is moving south from the mid-US is forecast to sink faster on the Eastern Gulf side and thus kind of trapping Gus into the central to West gulf. Again, the only question with this is if the High will sink fast enough to turn Gus before he hits land. I think that's the only thing that could keep him from hitting central LA at this point.