docrod
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Aug 30 2008 05:08 PM
Re: Gustav Lounge

Quote:

last night, there was a more of a NNW movement, the track didnt change? now as of 342 CDT it seems to have another NNW track again, maybe a wobble? but if the "wobble" continues for more than say an hour, when does it not become a wobble and become a shift? seems like all the tracking has a fettish for LA? im becoming less confident with all the models. on the IR i just dont see the high over the eastern GOM ? maybe its there, but its not affecting the feeder bands? im starting to think gustav could take a 90 degree turn to the east and NHC and all the other tracks would go into LA. not saying it is just a metaphore. anyone...... input???




While there has definitely been a bias in the track a little to the right, imho, a major turn is unlikely in a system moving this fast. The NHC really seems to do well once these systems get above 20 north and over 10knots forward speed. The ones that stall are the real nightmares. I think I know what you may be feeling. I tend to see a bulleye on my house when a system is to my south. Perhaps you feel a bulleye on your back as well. Again, imho, I think that is a healthy way to deal with these major hurricanes. - best wishes to all on the Gulf coast. - get prepared.



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