You made a great point and this may help as I failed to bring this up before. Read the Forecast Discussions issued from the NHC. They often mention the models they use to factor into the forecast... and the best performers most of the time.

Here is a part of the 5PM Discussion....not too much model talk but you will get the idea...

THE EYE HAS MOVED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP WARM WATER
OF THE LOOP CURRENT...AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CONTINUED SHEAR REDUCES THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS NO STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WHILE
THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST ABOUT 10 KT OF STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE
FALLING PRESSURES AND THE COLD CONVECTION...