Time to put the dart board away. The most reliable models IMO are the GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS and HWRF the NHC forecast usually is influenced by these the most. Environment seems to be evolving enough to clear up the range of solutions we have seen in the past couple days. UKMET has been persistent in sending Hanna west while most other models started sending her towards the Carolinas. Waiting on the 18Z UKMET to see if there is any change in the way they are dealing with the data. Last run of NOGAPS has moved significantly west so for the time being the recurving senario is not holding. Studying surface maps I am not seeing any feature that will pick Hanna up --yet. You can see the bulge in the ridge that wants to stall/loop her.

http://www.weathermatrix.net/weather/incoming/tropics.png

Going to be a couple interesting days coming up especially with Hanna's sudden burst of intense convection tonight. Regarding Gustav-- we need to keep everyone in that area in our thoughts tonight as it looks like they are going to take a pretty good hit.