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Well yet another day with Hanna not moving much from where it was yesterday in any even its a bit southeast of its location yesterday and is really just drifting about. Dont see much change over the next 24 hours with it likely moving little from where it is now.Hanna continue to me steered more southerly thanks to upper low in eastern Gulf combined with low in northwest Atlantic funneling southerly steering winds over Hanna. Shear remains on the high side around 20 knots or so. Expect slow and somewhat erratic movement through Wednesday before finally moving northwest. Right now my feeling is for Hanna to move northwest towards likely east central florida with possible landfall there. Not sure about a more north movement from there or a more continued northwest movement, leaning towards the first as right now I feel high will hold strong enough to drive it inland. Lean towards the NOGAPS solution right now. Strength wise I expect it to regain hurricane intensity as it moves up through the Bahamas and FL coast likely no more then maybe Cat 1 or low 2 at very most as I think shear may become issue again. All in all I feel low confidence in my reasoning but will see.. |