metwannabe
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 02 2008 08:07 PM
Re: Concern

I understand the models tend to shift back and forward, always have, that is why I do have tons of confidence in the experts at NHC and not so much in each and every model run. With that said the GFS shows a loop and I would guess if Hanna continues to have an eastward drift that once she does turn north she will pass back over her previous points - loop. It may have been the GFS or another model that showed this loop several days ago. So while models do flop back and forward at times their overall long term forecast is still amazingly accurate to me.

If Hanna continues to drift east and completes the loop as she is steered nw then I would think the path of the GFS is more likely and would put SC back in the "bullseye".



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