What is interesting in the sudden ramping up of Ike, is that the SST's he is encountering didn't seem strong enough to support a strong cat 4....yet, here we are. It just goes to show you what they admit....that intensity forecasts are not easy, and the current knowledge is limited. I do admire their ability to track the paths however...and with Ike, we have a major player on our hands. I have one question however.....with the intensity of Ike...now a cat 4....doesn't the upper ridge he is carrying along, and his cat 4 intensity...change somewhat the effect the steering currents will have? I would think that major swings in direction would be minimized....sorta plow through....instead of large changes in direction?

My thinking is because when looking back at major hurricanes... Andrew....Katrina....Gilbert.....they all seem to kinda be less effected by weaker steering currents....

Do you think the models are able to adjust the forecasts....when they plug the fact their is a cat 4 on their hands now? I would think their would be some deviation in the track...

That being said...I think it will get on a more westerly track...and not deviate much....

putting, in my mind....so Florida...and specifically....

Miami.....

in the bullseye...imho......lol