Ike looks very Andrew like to me: small but powerful. Hurricane force winds only extend out 35 miles according the NHC, this is downright tiny in general storm terms. These little storms tend to track more linear due to their compact shape and high spin rates, just a top spinning stays put till is slows and begins to wobble like crazy (like Fay & Hanna did)

Ike over came a slot of dry air very quickly by keeping his core isolated and just plowing straight forward. Ahead of him is the same shear that is ripping Hanna apart, but she never had any core for defense. Still Ike will lose some punch, but considering he was forecast to be only a Cat 2 and made it to Cat 4 this weakening will be as dramatic (down to Cat 2 maybe). The effects of the Hanna's outflow (no matter how sloppy) is already effected Ike's west side and pushing him NW as predicted so the current track is verifying nicely.

Thus the NHC's future track looks reasonable to me, the longer Ike stays below 25N the more worried I get here in South FL since a late NW turns puts us in the strike zone of a major 'cane. Now Hanna keeps trending east so when Ike turns he too should be on the east side of the cone as clearly the models don't have a handle on pressure to the north. I would image the NHC will be flooding the area NW of Hanna/Ike with recon missions so data should improve. Down the road there is a front coming that could also kick-the-baby (South Park reference) more east. Like I said before keep an eye on Hanna's track and wait for that NW turn on Monday, that will be when the real nail biting in South FL will start. Also for what is worth historical data supports Ike missing S FL (Isabel 2003 for example).