Another model trend I'm noticing is that Ike may slow down a lot as it approaches Florida. The thought of a major slowing down near or on the coast of Florida after Fay is not one I want to see, so we'll forget that for now. It's not all likely,

Either it could slam into Cuba (Like the GFDL and HRWF show tonight) or head just north and enter the Gulf, Get near or over florida (If it gets near the "ooh it may turn" Floyd-esque event may happen, better for Florida, worse for points North. Or it could just flat out slow down and slowly crawl over Florida into the Gulf (If the trough gets weaker, this is possible), but unlike Fay, as a much stronger storm.

And what I hope happens, it could go out to sea, but with the trends today, that looks less likely right now unfortunately.

Still the probabilities for any of the above actually happening are pretty low, and I'm not going to guess outside of tossing these up. It may wind up doing something crazy like diving south too.

There's the model round up tonight.