craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 04 2008 08:52 PM
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift..

I'm starting to get that deer in the headlights feeling. Every site I vist has the same tone. We need to collectively stay calm. This is why I would rather live in a hurricane prone area than a tornado active area. We still have time to watch and prepare. The cone of possible center locations at 120 hrs is huge. The problem I am having is the improvement in track accuracy over the years. We have already started having conversations about moving critical documents from our construction trailer, if the current senario pans out it certainly won't survive. Looking at synoptics right now the pattern seems to me to be far less complicated compared with Hanna's movement. The main influence on IKE is the strength of the ridge building (which the models seem to have a handle on) as compared with the variety of issues Hanna has faced - outflow from Gustav, strong shear from ULL to the North, weak steering currents.
We are looking at a strong storm projected to be in our back yard in a few days and everyone needs to stay prepared. From Cuba to the Carolinas and the Gulf coast down the road if IKE decides on that route.



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