I can't believe that after spending three days under Faye, and dodging the Hanna bullet Florida is now smack in the middle of the 5 day cone for a major hurricane. With the exception of the LBAR which has Ike going southwest, all the other models seem to agree that this time Florida is going to get it.

I guess that there still is a chance we might be spared. The NHC 11PM advisory says: THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE TURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS....WHILE THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UNTIL IT BECOME CLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THEM. But I still have a bad feeling about this one....