Its too early to know forsure, but right now its looking like a good threat to the Florida Keys. This is just south of the GFS but north of the GFDL. The eastern cone looks like Paradise island Bahamas-Freeport Bahamas-Just off the east coast along 80W. The center cone takes it to near or just west of Andros Island-Central and Northern Keys and up the Florida Peninsula. The western outline is now interacting with Cuba-west of Key West- off the west coast of Florida- Towards Biloxi and east to the Florida Panhandle.
This isnt a forecast, just speculation and Ill make my first offical forecast later on Saturday since then it will be 3 days away from a possible landfall. We have plenty of time. We need to see more Data go into the models, which model is running best (GFDL or GFS or Compromise them), also the pattern over the continental U.S. for early next week. If this interacts with Cuba, it will be much weaker and may move more west into the extreme NW carribean (ala GFDL) or the ridge may not be as orientated in the NE-SW and be more E-W and keep IKE more westerly towards Andros Island by late Sunday.