craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 05 2008 08:33 AM
Attachment
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

To all FYI an excerpt from the HPC this morning also attached latest micro pass from around 8:27 AM EDT. IKE is actually showing very strong stucture at the surface on the North side. You can clearly make out the eye below the dense overcast.
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
441 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

VALID 12Z TUE SEP 09 2008 - 12Z FRI SEP 12 2008

MAJOR HURRICANE IKE IS THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE WEATHER FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN EXPECTED TRACK THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH AN
ANTICIPATED BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK USED WAS
MODIFIED TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE ONGOING TPC TRACK AND ONGOING MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUITY.
THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED AGAIN WITH NHC AGAIN AT 16Z...IN TIME FOR
THE AFTERNOON PRESSURES ISSUANCE.


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