Current trend on IKE is that it is actually south of the forecast track right now.
That will tend toward a general south and west shift in the cone, but the east side of the cone will still be off shore, IMO. That is because the weakness in between the two high pressure systems steering the system may be relativly more pronounced, especially if Hanna gains strenght today and goes into Cat 1 status for a while. Hanna is performing beyond expectations from yesterday's appearance and the LLC has tucked in beneath the convection, and it looks decidedly tropical rather than extra tropiclal as it was described yesterday, so there is a chance the weakness will be pronounced enough to keep IKE off any land. However, if IKE does not slow down and stays south of the current track the odds on an off. shore solution go down. I ageree with Scott that it will be Saturday p.m. to get any confidence.
One more thing on the confidence...NHC uses all the models and has consensus models...once they lock into the concensus that track is usually pretty tight, especially for 72 hours. I have also noted NHC track is not ever too far from the HRWF or GFS in reaching the concensus.