JMII
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 05 2008 09:24 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

Agree with the others, Ike is further south of his forecast position so we should see another shift of the cone, the models are trending south as well.

Now once he reaches the islands he'll be in an area of weak steering currents and as we've seen with Fay and Hanna this could cause problems. However if he continues to track south he might hit Cuba sparing us in FL from hurricane force winds. The only thing that worries me is a NW turn will occur at some point... so we're back to the timing issue: a sooner turn brings him into Palm Beach, a later turn puts him into the middle Keys, an even later turn and this becomes a GOM storm! Just keep in mind since he is small storm there would major differences in the effects your local city would feel depending on the local of final landfall.

Currently Ike is an area of some NNW shear so figure on drop down to Cat 2 status and more southerly track today. And as stated before: Monday seems to be the key day to figure out if Ike will effect Florida or not.



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