Messy models all in all. Tampa isn't out of it.. no can't say that, neither is the whole Gulf. Really does seem a Florida storm one way or the other.. either a direct hit or we get caught in the northern part of the storm and get a lot of wind and rain.

By the way, Collins Avenue in Miami was flooded driving to work today from non-stop rain from Hanna. This isn't a location comment on my weather as much as a concern that Miami and parts of Florida may not have time to dry out before the rains from Ike hit this region. A real 1 2 3 punch round here it seems.

So... beginning to buy into the bigger dip and the slow sharp NW movement later. Rather not be directly hit by a Cat 3 or 4 but a real possibilty.

Hanna seems to be taking the west side of her cone I think from watching radar imagery not just sat and Ike is a drop south I think which portends a more SW movement I think earlier rather than later but for how long? Maybe her weather mass is more to the left but either way her weather is what's going to cause a mess up and down the Eastern Seaboard.

Where is the trough? It's weak now.. I don't see the real steering mechanism that can lift Ike before landfall or crawl down through the Straits.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.html

Show me the front that is going to take Ike away before Florida.. I don't see it.

Watching NHC and waiting for their 11 AM ..